CHART
CONTROL
THE HOT 100,
REVERSE-ENGINEERED.
Janice STFU
Drake · -
POINTS TO HOLD POSITION
Minimum Song Equivalent points at each chart rank, this week.
Will Your Song Chart?
Input a consumption profile. Predicted Hot 100 position updates in real time.
The Formula
Luminate's Song Equivalent, reverse-engineered from 20 weeks of chart data and 84 consumption drill-ins. Re-fit every week as new data lands.
The model learns every week. New drill-ins trigger a refit; divisors drift toward their true values as sample size grows. Sales is locked at ÷1. Programmed will move off the 2024 prior once we capture per-song Service Type breakdowns starting next chart week.
THIS WEEK'S AUDIT
Predicted vs actual Song Equivalent across six threshold positions.
Janice STFU
Drake
Man I Need
Olivia Dean
Midnight Sun
Zara Larsson
Don't We
Morgan Wallen
Dry Spell
Kacey Musgraves
Staying Still
Noah Kahan
Does It Generalize?
In-sample MAPE is always optimistic. The honest test: fit the model on only prior weeks, then predict the next one without peeking. Here's how the model performs week-by-week in that strict walk-forward setup.
Weekly Held-Out MAPE
Predicted vs Actual Points
Threshold Drift
How the points required at each rank shift week to week. Spikes mark big release weeks; valleys mark softer chart weeks worth targeting.
Creates Per Point
TikTok creates barely move with Hot 100 position. Pearson −0.032 across our 24-song sample.
The real signal is the ratio of lifetime creates to chart points — that ratio is a genre fingerprint. Low ratio = US radio & streaming engine. High ratio = global TikTok hit the Hot 100 undercounts.
Median creates-per-point by normalized genre. Each song's ratio is most meaningfully compared to its cohort here.
Normalize TikTok expectations against genre, not an absolute number.
A country song at 500K creates is a breakout signal. A pop song at 500K creates is underperforming its cohort. The Hot 100 undercounts global TikTok virality: Raindance has 65× more creates per chart point than Choosin' Texas because its audience streams outside the US.
Source: Cobrand lifetime Total Creates · N = 24songs · weekly snapshots begin Wednesday
Billboard Hot 100
· Week of May 8 – 14, 2026
All 100 charting songs, ranked by Song Equivalent units. Top 10 featured; remainder expandable.